Three Key Issues Have the Oilers Facing Elimination
Following a disappointing Game 5, the Edmonton Oilers now find themselves one loss away from another Stanley Cup Final defeat.
Back-to-back losses to the Florida Panthers would be a significant blow to the Oilers organization. Florida has once again proven to be a difficult opponent, and after a lopsided defeat in Game 5, Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch and his staff are likely weighing every possible lineup change.
So, how did the Oilers end up in this precarious position? In my view, three major factors have propelled Florida to the brink of a championship — and unless Edmonton can address these problems quickly, the Cup could be awarded as early as Tuesday night.
Let’s break down what’s gone wrong for Edmonton:
1. Florida’s Middle-Six Forwards Are Controlling the Series
Coming into the Final, there were concerns about how Edmonton would handle the Panthers’ second and third lines — known for their speed, physical play, and balanced offense and defense.
Those fears have come true. The Panthers’ third line, led by Eetu Luostarinen, Brad Marchand, and Anton Lundell, has been dominant — just as they were during the Eastern Conference playoffs. Against the Oilers, they’ve been even more effective, which is crucial, since defeating Edmonton typically means limiting the damage in the minutes when McDavid isn’t on the ice.
While Florida has adjusted their lines throughout the series, their depth forwards are consistently outperforming Edmonton.
In this otherwise closely contested series, Marchand (+6) and Lundell (+5) have stood out, helping the Panthers outscore the Oilers by three goals at even strength through five games.
Florida may not boast the most intimidating top line in hockey, but their ability to roll out three strong forward lines — backed by reliable defensive pairings and elite goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky — makes them incredibly hard to beat.
Although the Oilers have some of the league’s best offensive weapons, their supporting cast has not kept up. Even worse, Florida’s middle six hasn’t just outplayed Edmonton’s depth; they’ve gone toe-to-toe and outperformed superstars Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who are -5 and -3, respectively, when matched up against them.
So, not only is Florida’s depth carrying the load — it’s doing it directly against Edmonton’s best.
2. Power Play Falling Flat
For the first time in recent memory, Edmonton’s power play doesn’t look dominant. While it was strong enough during the regular season to avoid scrutiny, its underperformance in the playoffs — particularly in this series — is a real problem.
From 2020 to 2024, Edmonton led the NHL with a power-play rate of 10.6 goals per 60 minutes. This season, that number fell to 8.9, dropping them to 11th place.
That slight decline didn’t raise many alarms at the time, especially since key players like McDavid missed stretches of the season. But now, in the playoffs, the drop-off is clearly hurting them.
In this series, the Oilers’ power play is only generating 7.0 goals per 60 minutes — while Florida is nearly doubling that with 12.0. The Panthers have scored seven power-play goals from six different players, including two by Matthew Tkachuk. In contrast, Edmonton has just four, half scored by Draisaitl, and one of them canceled out by a Panthers short-handed goal.
3. Goaltending Woes Continue
Whether you rely on a single elite goalie or a tandem like Edmonton does, the reality remains the same: poor goaltending will usually lead to losses.
That has been the case for the Oilers. Stuart Skinner’s struggles in Game 4 and Calvin Pickard’s rough outing in Game 5 have made it hard for Edmonton to stay competitive.
While the Oilers did manage a comeback in Game 4 despite goaltending issues, consistently winning that way is not sustainable — especially against a team like Florida, and especially when facing Sergei Bobrovsky, who can dominate games when needed.
Simply put, Bobrovsky has been much more effective than Skinner and Pickard. When accounting for shot quality, the difference in goals saved above expected between Bobrovsky and Edmonton’s duo is nearly six over five games — a significant and dangerous gap.
These three factors — Florida’s depth dominance, Edmonton’s faltering power play, and inferior goaltending — have pushed the Oilers to the edge of elimination. While I still believe they have the talent to turn things around and possibly steal the series, it’s clear that dramatic improvements are needed, and fast.
